Newsom Is The One for 2028, and Here’s Why

Image - Gage Skidmore

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November 5th, 2024, and the Democratic donkey is dragging its hooves along the floor. Having lost the White House and both chambers of Congress in one night, it was about as bad as it could get for the party, with sparks of optimism few and far between. When the party line is effectively remarking that it ‘could have been worse’, you know something's gone rather awry. The landscape has certainly changed since that fateful night, however. Trump has proven erratic, dishonest, and unpopular. Despite controlling all three branches of government (Supreme Court included), the Republicans have somewhat floundered, leaving Democrats optimistic ahead of this year’s midterms, especially in recapturing Congress’s lower chamber, the House of Representatives.

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Given the vehement rejection of the Democrats in favour of MAGA in 2024, the issue of who the next Democratic candidate for the presidency was rather beyond the scope. But now, as the Democrat donkey rises from a depressive bout and the 2028 election shifts closer, it has become a pre-eminent point of discussion, with several names thrown in that proverbial hat. My yPolitics colleague Roger Berlea is eagerly backing House Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while The Hill has listed the likes of a Kamala Harris re-run or Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as prime candidates. However, I’m siding with the bookies: California Governor Gavin Newsom is the one.

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While the approach of criticising flaws in other candidates is always appealing (and often necessary) in presidential primaries, I think all candidates listed have notable upsides and drawbacks. It is very rare to have an Obama-like figure who always seems above flaws, and Newsom is certainly not such a character. The pre-eminent qualities that make him the ideal Democratic nominee are where this piece’s focus lies, and not in the comparative shortcomings of others. Still, Newsom has flaws to be addressed. His backtracking over his stance on ICE is one such issue, as is his over-leaning into the troubles of his upbringing, which, while a wise strategy for mobilising the Democratic base, doesn’t portray him as particularly presidential to independents.

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There are evidently issues to address for the California governor, leaving the question of what works and why it supersedes his flaws. Firstly, he’s not afraid to roll around in the mud, and that’s not being deployed in pejorative terms. Newsom has beliefs, and if he feels he needs to engage in Punch and Judy politics (largely via X) to stand up for them, then he will. Does it land in a humorous manner without fail? No, not always, but does it have the panache the Democrats need for 2028, an election where they’ll be facing another brazen MAGA Republican? Certainly.

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Newsom is merely playing the game, and doing so superbly, recognising that the success of ‘if they go low, we go high’ isn’t a proven strategy for the Democrats following their defeat to Trump in 2024. If it weren’t for COVID-19, you can consider it doubtful Biden would have even won in 2020, and thus on fair ground, it’s not a stretch to say such a strategy would have been zero and three against the MAGA publicity machine. The Democratic candidate needs to get themselves out there, and not just to New York Mamdanites who would vote Blue even if they had the actual Democratic donkey on the ticket, but to the crucial independent voters who determined the outcome in 2024, wherein Harris lost major ground.

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Of course, getting your face in front of voters (digitally) is only half the game, where connecting with them is the other half. But Newsom has a communication style that has gone under the radar; he’s very Clinton-esque, and while many shiver at that name for justifiable reasons, the former president was undoubtedly incredible at affixing himself to voters. His infamous 1992 town-hall debate highlights this well, particularly a conversation he had over national debt wherein he gave a concerned member of the electorate a rhetorical hug, never once breaking from his stride. Newsom is just like that: his hand gestures, the fact that he doesn’t use scripts in his speeches due to his dyslexia, and the comfortable intonation with which he delivers lines in an almost podcastian manner (explained by the fact that he indeed runs a podcast). Given an apt platform, he can inspire voters in the same way Clinton did against Bush Sr. all those years ago.

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On the topic of his podcast, This is Gavin Newsom, the titular host has displayed a particularly unique engagement with the right in a manner that has dismayed commentators on the more progressive left. From Charlie Kirk to Ben Shapiro, Newsom takes the approach that we have to learn from the whole chicken, not just the left or the right wing. He demonstrates a pragmatic willingness to listen and learn that many an American progressive has disregarded in the wake of Zohran Mamdani. Given that the 2028 Democratic candidate will have to win over voters from beyond the far left, such an approach is refreshing, so long as Newsom does not capitulate to those whom he engages. So far, he’s done an ample job of this, aside from the occasional slip-up for which many have justly criticised.

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A pivotal part of Newsom’s presidential appeal is his conception of a vision for America. Scouring long-form interviews, which have begun to poke at the ‘American identity’ under the governor (I’d recommend those for The Guardian, The Rest Is Politics, and POLITICO), Newsom has a clear conception of himself, first of all. Raised by a single mother but possessing connections to some of the richest families on earth, he doesn’t belong in any set Democratic faction. Part moderate, part progressive, his conception of America is one of enterprise (but for the everyman) and of radical, but not radicalised, policy.

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Many of the MAGA cohort have, unsurprisingly, attempted to assail his record as California governor, referring to the state as the ‘land of fraud’. As with Newsom himself, his governor's record is by no means flawless, with fraud-related issues surrounding over-eager COVID payments being a notable misstep. However, with one of the highest minimum wages in America and a progressive tax system that has facilitated an economic ascendancy in California, which is now the 4th largest economy in the world in terms of nominal GDP, Newsom has evidently got something both right and to pitch to the rest of America. Credit is also due for his medical insurance policies, which have transformed the lives of many of California’s most vulnerable through a holistic approach which ties together medical, poverty, and homelessness relief. While Newsom’s description of his California as one of “persistence, the courage of our convictions, and the strength to embody them” is somewhat self-indulgent, it's certainly an image to sell to the broader electorate.

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Newsom has the cumulative traits, values, and beliefs to propel himself to the White House should he be able to navigate the turbulence of the Democratic primaries. The headline intentionally doesn’t refer to said primaries, as should he be selected and successfully navigate the long road of pitfalls with which presidential elections come, he has what it takes to put MAGA six feet under. While he’s by no means a flawless knight in armour, Newsom has the pugnacity to say what needs to be said and do what needs to be done. While Newsom is no Obama, he isn’t Harris either, and has the means to take the Democrats where she failed that fateful November.

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