With local elections looming in May, Nigel Farage will be aiming to turn Reform UK’s polling strength into real control of councils across England. The 2025 local elections were a success for Reform; they won the largest number of contested seats and gained control of 10 councils. Polling from both Ipsos and YouGov shows that Reform continue to lead in the polls. This suggests that they are in a great position to build on last year’s success.
However, YouGov’s data also suggests Reform’s momentum has stalled, with support falling from a peak of 29% in May 2025 to 23% today. More strikingly, half the electorate appears off limits to Farage. A YouGov survey from November 2025 asked participants on a scale of 0-10 how likely they would be to consider voting for each of the UK parties, 51% of people said 0 out of 10 for Reform. This level of outright rejection places a hard limit on the party’s potential growth. Political favourability metrics from YouGov also reveal that Farage’s net favourability stands at -39, with only 27% of Britons viewing him favourably. He is still a polarising figure, and this will limit the number of voters he can capture.
Crucially, polling support did not translate into electoral success in recent by-elections. In both Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton, Reform lost by 11-12 points to Plaid Cymru and the Greens by considerable margins. These results pose a broader structural problem for Reform; in an increasingly fragmented political landscape voters are more likely to vote tactically under the first-past-the-post system. As a result, Reform can attract significant support but still fail to win seats, as opposition voters consolidate behind whichever candidate is best placed to defeat them.
Internal Challenges and Governing Woes
Reform is suffering from a cluster of internal issues that are beginning to undermine its electoral viability. Firstly, their handling of local council’s has been particularly disappointing and somewhat chaotic. They have been accused of betraying their core election promise to cut or freeze council tax after several Reform-led councils proposed significant increases. In Kent, Derbyshire, and Northamptonshire, tax rises were set close to the legal maximum of 5%. Additionally, last December they scrapped council tax exemptions for people on low incomes in County Durham due to funding pressures, effectively forcing the poorest to shoulder the burden.
Reform is also losing councillors elected in May 2025 at an alarming pace; by November 2025 they had lost more than 5% of their councillors due to defections, expulsions and resignations. Many of these were expulsions and suspensions that were highly controversial in nature:
Additionally, the controversy surrounding leader of Warwickshire County Council, George Finch, will raise further questions about Reform’s governing ability. Finch narrowly survived a no-confidence vote after claiming that Warwickshire Police had withheld information regarding the perpetrator’s asylum status in a child exploitation case.
Reform have also been accepting many Tory defections which is making them look like the Tories 2.0, thus undermining their image as the anti-establishment party. Data from Best for Britain shows that in the last 6 months 9 Tory MPs and 53 Tory councillors have defected to Reform. High profile defections such as those of Nadhim Zahawi, Robert Jenrick, and Suella Braverman bring limited electoral benefit, given their low favourability ratings. Rather than strengthening the party, these defections brand Reform as a refuge for unpopular establishment politicians fleeing a sinking ship.
The Trump problem
Farage is also suffering from a Trump problem; his close association with Trump is putting voters off. Trump remains deeply unpopular in Britain, with YouGov polling showing that 81% of Britons have an unfavourable opinion of Trump. To make matters worse for Reform, 70% of Britons view Reform UK as pro-Trump and More in Common found that Farage’s support for Trump is the main barrier to voting Reform.
Recently, Farage has faced scrutiny over his comments which suggested the UK should support the US in Iran, as he stated, ‘the gloves need to come off’ and ‘we need to accept that we’re part of this with the Americans.’ However, most Britons oppose US military action (56%). His subsequent U-turn on his position risks making him appear inconsistent and politically opportunistic, undermining his credibility and reinforcing concerns that his positions are shaped by his close relationship to Trump.
Farage has also proposed policies that resemble those of Trump’s America. In February, Reform revealed ‘radical’ plans to create an ICE-style deportation agency to aid their ‘Operation Restoring Justice’ plan to deport 600,000 people in five years. Only 11% of Britons hold a positive view of ICE, according to recent YouGov polling, thus this policy will be unsettling to many voters.
Looking ahead
Reform UK enters the May local elections from a position of apparent strength but facing significant headwinds. While polling suggests continued support, questions remain about whether this translates at the ballot box, particularly given recent by-election performances. The party's council governance record, councillor retention issues, Conservative defections, and Trump associations all present challenges. The key question is whether Reform's core supporters, driven primarily by immigration concerns and dissatisfaction with mainstream parties, will remain loyal despite these issues, or whether the party has reached its natural ceiling of support.
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