Image - Senedd Cymru/Welsh Parliament
On the seventh of May, Wales went to the polls to elect its national government. After nearly three decades under a Labour government, Plaid Cymru was elected to lead, with Rhun ap Iorweth serving as First Minister. The results of this election marked a fundamental shift in Welsh politics, signalling the beginning of a transformation in the devolved nations now that Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are all led by nationalist parties.
The Results
The results of the 2026 Senedd elections indicated a paradigm shift in the Welsh political sphere. It was the first time the new D'Hondt system of proportional representation was used, and constituency boundaries were changed, creating ninety-six seats rather than the previous sixty. Opinion polling prior to the election indicated that it would be a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK Wales. Plaid won forty-three seats, with Reform gaining thirty-four, resulting in a Plaid minority government and Reform in opposition.
Labour retained nine seats, less than an eighth of the vote share, a drastic decrease from the 2021 election where the party received 38%. Even prior to devolution, Wales was a stronghold for the Labour Party, which had a particular connection to the nation as its founder, Keir Hardie, was an MP in the valleys for Merthyr Tydfil. The Tories have historically been unsuccessful in Wales, and so for Labour to only gain two more seats than the Welsh Conservatives reveals the bigger issue at hand: Labour’s UK wide performance.
The Rise of Reform?
Reform being the government in opposition is not surprising, but it certainly suggests a growing discontentment in Wales, and the UK. There are a variety of factors that have contributed to its rise to power, but all point towards frustration with what was the incumbent government.
One of the top issues Welsh voters wanted the government to prioritise was immigration. This is particularly interesting, because immigration is not a devolved matter. The Senedd cannot legislate on immigration because it is a power reserved for the Home Office in Westminster. Even if Reform was able to form a majority government in Wales, it would be unable to take action on ‘stopping the boats’. The party’s manifesto did state it would scrap the Nation of Sanctuary scheme, which seeks to support refugees and asylum seekers. However, the Home Office is in charge of deciding where immigrants are housed, again not a devolved issue.
The rise of Reform in Wales is particularly ironic as the party has demonstrated very little respect for Welsh culture. Its manifesto states that “Reform believes in, and will actively promote, full equality between the Welsh and English languages”. However, they pledged to abolish the current target of one million Welsh speakers by 2050. Moreover, their party leader, Nigel Farage, has recently faced criticism for labelling the Welsh “foreign speakers” in a cameo video. The Welsh language is incredibly important to the people of Wales, so branding it as “foreign” is blatantly disrespectful. Children speaking Welsh in Welsh schools were forced to wear the “Welsh Not” and victims of corporal punishment for the crime of speaking their first language. Reform have stated that the video was a joke that Farage was paid to make, but it begs the question, if their party leader is prepared to disrespect Welsh culture for a “joke” for a few hundred pounds, what else are they prepared to do?
Additionally, their manifesto addresses what they perceive as impartiality in museums and journalisms. It states “Heritage institutions exist to inform the public, not to advance contemporary political positions.” This raises concerns about controlling the narratives and interpretations of history. By dictating the presentation of museum’s historical narratives, the recent move to ‘decolonise’ history is seemingly at risk. Finally, the party pledged to “end the use of public funds to support politically biased journalism”. Journalists must follow impartiality laws, and so this policy appears to target journalists who are critical of the Reform Party and its members. For a party that places so much emphasis on free speech, it seems incongruous that it would pledge to control the language, change presentations of history, and attempt to silence journalists.
Reform’s success in Wales is likely down to an anti-establishment sentiment because of the failures of the previous government. However, their policies appear to be inherently anti-Welsh, and so their policies are generally more popular with those in Wales who are unionists. For those who have voiced concern about Reform’s Welsh policies, it is a relief that they did not gain a majority. But Reform in opposition still poses a danger.
Plaid: The Party of Wales
Plaid Cymru’s majority in the Senedd is further proof of Welsh dissatisfaction, causing the public to abandon Labour. Plaid is a centre-left/left, nationalist party. Previously, they had minimal success in places like the valleys, tending to garner support in West Wales instead. However, the 2026 election was a completely different story for the Party of Wales, who won at least two seats in all sixteen constituencies. Undoubtedly, Wales demands change and believes Plaid can deliver.
For the first time, a cabinet meeting in the Senedd was conducted in Welsh. This is incredibly significant, symbolising the importance of the language at government level. The party’s manifesto included emphasising the preservation of the Welsh language, reducing waiting times in the NHS, and devolving the Crown Estate. The Crown Estate manages land and sea assets that belong to the royal family that produces profit. Control of the estate has been devolved to Scotland, but Wales has not benefitted in the same way. It does not directly receive the profits made from the estate. In 2025, the UK government rejected the bid to devolve the Crown Estate, despite all twenty-two local authorities demanding control. Plaid’s manifesto places the devolution of the estate as a high priority, reflecting its commitment to Wales as a nation. It is policies like this that appeal to the electorate, seeing commitment to Wales as fundamental for the governing body.
Notably, Plaid backs Welsh independence. The party aims to discuss a referendum, and devolve the powers to decide “on the timeline, question and process for an independence referendum”. Of course, the issue of independence is divisive. Plaid’s stance on the issue may have discouraged some of the electorate who lean towards a more unionist stance. However, even if the government was to hold a referendum, the likelihood of Wales voting to leave the union is low, with 54% stating they would vote no. In the future, support could increase, which is something Plaid would facilitate. Overall, it appears that Plaid gained a majority because of their Welsh-centric policies, as a feasible alternative to Labour.
What Does This Mean for UK Labour?
Labour’s losses in the Senedd 2026 elections are reflective of UK-wide disillusionment of its government. Although Starmer did not reference the Welsh elections in his speech following England’s local elections, losing a twenty-seven-year long rule in Wales would not have increased his confidence. Whatever the future for UK Labour, it is clear that the electorate are growing weary of their rule.
Future of Cymru
Plaid’s success in government is still to be determined. For many, it is a relief that a party that presents itself as prioritising Wales first has a majority. Reform and its supporters, however, will be watching Plaid very closely. On the eighteenth of May, the Reform UK Wales X account tweeted “how many have ever had a proper job?” in response to a photo of the new Plaid cabinet, perhaps indicating how the party will behave in opposition. However, it is undeniably clear that the people of Wales demand change and demonstrated this at the polls. The extent of the change is still yet to reveal itself.
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