Battlegrounds of the 21st Century, Where the Next Crisis Could Erupt: Sudan

The Sudanese civil war, ignited on April 15, 2023, has evolved into one of the most devastating conflicts of the 21st century. What began as a power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has spiralled into a multifaceted humanitarian disaster. As of April 2025, the war has claimed over 14,700 lives and displaced more than 8 million people, making Sudan the epicentre of the world's largest internal displacement crisis.

Source - Randy Fath

The roots of the Sudanese civil war trace back to the 2019 ousting of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir. In the subsequent years, Sudan experienced a tenuous transition towards civilian rule, marked by the 2021 coup led by General al-Burhan. The 2023 conflict was precipitated by escalating tensions between the SAF and RSF, both powerful military factions vying for dominance.

A power-sharing agreement between the military and the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) was established under the auspices of international mediation, forming the Sovereignty Council tasked with guiding a civilian-led transition to democracy.

However, deep-seated mistrust between the military and civilian sectors, compounded by economic stagnation and a lack of coherent institutional reform, led to the military’s reassertion of power in October 2021. This culminated in the arrest of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and the dissolution of the transitional government. The dual-command structure between the SAF and the RSF further destabilized this fragile arrangement, with neither side fully integrated into a unified chain of command.

At the heart of the conflict are two men: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a powerful paramilitary group that evolved from the notorious Janjaweed militias once active in Darfur. The two were once allies, but tensions over control of the military, future elections, and the integration of the RSF into the regular army exploded into violence. Al-Burhan leads a conventional army, backed by bureaucrats and technocrats from the former regime. Hemedti, meanwhile, commands a mobile, well-funded paramilitary force with deep roots in gold smuggling networks and foreign sponsorship.

The United Nations World Food Programme estimates that 20.3 million people — nearly half the population — are now facing acute food insecurity, with famine looming in conflict zones. Markets have collapsed. Humanitarian aid, when it does arrive, is often blocked or seized by armed groups. Access to humanitarian corridors thus remains erratic. Both sides have been accused of blocking aid convoys and targeting relief workers. The International Criminal Court (ICC), already investigating Darfur-era crimes, has opened preliminary inquiries into current atrocities, but enforcement capacity remains limited in the absence of cooperation from Sudanese authorities.