Unrest in Southern Syria: (July 2025–Present)

Image - Mahmoud Sulaiman

Since July 2025, southern Syria has once again become a focal point of intense armed conflict, raising alarm among regional and international actors about the fragile stability of the area and the broader implications for Middle Eastern geopolitics. The resurgence of hostilities, involving government forces, opposition factions, and local militias, underscores the persistent fragility of Syria’s post-conflict landscape and the underlying power struggles that continue to shape the country's trajectory.

The escalation can be traced back to a complex web of local grievances, strategic calculations, and external influences. Many analysts interpret the renewed violence as a reflection of the failure of previous ceasefire agreements and diplomatic efforts to establish a sustainable peace. The recent clashes, concentrated in the provinces of Daraa and Quneitra—areas historically marked by opposition activity and strategic importance—highlight the ongoing contest for influence among various domestic and foreign actors.

And external actors continue to play a significant role. Turkey’s involvement remains pivotal, as it seeks to establish a buffer zone and prevent the resurgence of Kurdish-led groups perceived as threats on its southern border. Meanwhile, Iran continues to bolster pro-Assad forces, aiming to strengthen its regional influence and maintain a land corridor connecting Tehran to Beirut. The United States, which maintains a limited presence in northeastern Syria, has expressed concern over the escalation but remains cautious about direct involvement, instead urging diplomatic solutions and emphasising the importance of protecting civilian populations.

Humanitarian conditions have deteriorated sharply, with thousands of civilians displaced and seeking refuge in neighbouring countries such as Jordan and Lebanon. The conflict zone remains perilous, with limited humanitarian access hampering relief efforts and exacerbating suffering. Reports of civilian casualties, destruction of infrastructure, and shortages of essential supplies highlight the urgent need for renewed international engagement, beyond mere diplomatic rhetoric.

Ultimately, the ongoing violence in southern Syria reveals the limitations of external mediators and highlights the necessity for Syrian-led negotiations that incorporate local voices and address core grievances. Until then, the risk of prolonged conflict, humanitarian crises, and regional destabilisation persists, casting a long shadow over Syria’s future and the stability of the Middle East at large.