Tug of War: Is the West Moving Left or Right?
- Zara Wolfson
- Dec 10, 2024
- 5 min read
The UK’s election of Keir Starmer’s Labour government in July 2024 seemed to mark a shift to the political left - associated with ideas of social equality, egalitarianism and Keynesian economics. However, the recent election of Kemi Badenoch as Conservative Party leader, triumphing against more centrist candidates, shows a (reactionary?) push from the political right, which commonly accepts natural hierarchy and favours market economics. Similar clashes are seen elsewhere in the West, as Trump’s electoral success in the US contrasts with social equality and climate action movements, evidenced by the 1.5% popular vote difference between Trump and his left-leaning opponent, Kamala Harris. Are young people’s voices being heard, or does political representation in Western powers primarily side with the right?
There is an undoubted right-moving force across the West. The re-election of Donald Trump on November 6 saw a phenomenon that has not occurred since 1892, as he became the second president in history to have been elected twice non-consecutively. Notorious for his strict immigration policies, Trump promises a “record-setting deportation operation” in a departure from the Biden administration’s record use of immigration parole resulting in over 2.4million migrants allowed into the US since 2021. The influence of the new presidency on the far-right is clear, seen in the commendation of his election by Dutch ‘Party for Freedom’ leader Geert Wilders, and Alice Weidel, co-leader of ‘Alternative for Germany’, who praised the result as progress against “woke Hollywood”.
In the UK, this rightward shift is evidenced in the election of Kemi Badenoch as leader of the Conservative Party, winning the leadership race against more centrist Conservatives including James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat. On November 2, Badenoch received 56% of the 73% turnout vote by Party members, providing a clear mandate to lead the UK’s right-wing party following its conclusion of 14 years in power. Nicknamed “culture warrior”, Badenoch calls herself a “gender-critical feminist”, opposing gender-neutral toilets and angering the LGBTQ community with her statement that “children cannot be transgender”. Although a right-wing woman leading the right-wing Conservative Party may seem obvious, her ‘anti-woke’ rhetoric is significant as a demonstration of demand for stronger policies from the right.
But are right-wing leaders reacting against an unavoidable leftward move? In the UK General Election 2024, 45% of 25-29 year olds voted for Labour, compared with 8% for the Conservatives, showing the left-wing party’s definite support from young people on policies like increasing the national minimum wage. Young people’s distance from the right in the UK has increased, as in the General Election 2019, 23% of 25-29 year olds voted Conservative, marking a 15% decrease over the past five years. Comparatively, left-wing support from young people has remained more consistent, although also decreasing from the 2019 results in which 54% of the same age group voted for Labour. Similar patterns were seen in the US Presidential Election, in which exit polls showed that 55% of 18-29 year olds voted for Harris, compared with 42% for Trump, demonstrating young people’s support of the Democrat’s policies of gun control and greater reproductive rights. When compared with the 2020 Presidential Election, 60% of this age group voted for Biden compared with 36% for Trump. Although there has been a slight swing towards Trump’s Republican Party in the recent results, the voting behaviour of young people still shows a left-wing preference, projecting a continuing leftward trend as young people gain influence in shaping election results.
The influence of young people cannot be ignored, despite their views often striking direct contrast with those of the right-wing leaders currently in power. In the US, Donald Trump showed a disregard for climate change action during his previous presidency by withdrawing from the Paris Agreement (2016) in 2020, which aims to prevent a global temperature rise exceeding 2C. Despite this, left-wing activism has resulted in environmental progress in the US, and in the same year, California announced plans to permit only zero-emission cars by 2035, showing the clash between the two ends of the political spectrum. The Californian Governor, Gavin Newsom, has also proposed a $25million fund to tackle legal fights against Trump on controversial issues including reproductive rights and immigration. Such threats to Trump’s right-wing government demonstrate the head-to-head battle within the political spectrum, which is more complex than solely which party is in power.
This clash is also prevalent in the UK. Last year, as Prime Minister of the previous Conservative government, Rishi Sunak delayed the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by five years, pushing back the requirement for zero-emission cars to 2035. Although this target readjustment aligned the UK’s goals with those implemented by Newsom in California, the decision to alter a pre-established climate action objective demonstrates the Conservative Party’s ranking of priorities. A similar lack of urgency towards global warming prevention has been inherited by his predecessor Kemi Badenoch, a self-proclaimed “net-zero sceptic”. Despite the Conservative Party’s seemingly reduced focus towards climate change action, the success of the Labour Party in the recent general election demonstrates public demand for more accomplishment in this area. In their 2024 manifesto, the Labour Party pledged the establishment of Great British Energy, projected to be a publicly owned company working with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero to help the UK become a “clean energy superpower”. This policy, and its support evidenced by Labour’s electoral victory, show a continued demand for left-wing policies and a rejection of the narrative of right-wing power across the West.
Determining the political direction of the West is not clear cut, as the policies of global leaders contradict with the views of the public, particularly young people. However, the UK’s left-wing government does seem anomalous compared with other Western powers, and even within the UK, questions around the length of its tenure have already been raised. The Labour government and its landslide electoral victory in July can be seen as a public reaction against the Conservative Party, rather than in support of Labour itself. The nature of the UK’s electoral system – ‘first past the post’ – reiterates this notion, as the disproportionate system meant Labour gained 411 of 650 seats from only 33.7% of the popular vote. In comparison, the Conservatives received 121 seats from 23.7% of the popular vote. Thus, the UK appears to break the rightward trend of the West because of the unique political context which saw the Conservative Party in power for 14 years, as well as the electoral system which disfigures the popular vote in terms of political representation. When considering Western powers more broadly, right-wing leaders are gaining increasing popularity and control. The significant election of Donald Trump reiterates this and marks an undoubted step in a rightward direction.
