Spain and the possible return of the two-party system

Although early general elections are not in sight in Spain, the political landscape appears to be taking shape earlier than usual. After the 2023 elections, it became clear that the political party system in Spain had completely changed. Support and electoral preferences were concentrated at that time in the traditional political forces: the center-left, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), and the center-right, the Popular Party. Both political forces had weakened just over a decade earlier, opening spaces for new movements such as Podemos (left-wing), Ciudadanos (center), and, very recently, Vox (far-right). The results of the 2023 elections reflect a very interesting phenomenon in which Spanish democracy seems to have been reconfigured, renewing support for traditional political institutions over alternatives that have disruptively entered the political scene.

Source - Francesco Zivoli

The disappearance of Ciudadanos after their decline in the second election of 2019 and the reconfiguration of the left through the creation of the common front led by Sumar implied that these political alignments did not live up to public expectations. Vox, on the other hand, has suffered strong impacts that have weakened it. But it remains a strong entity that has positioned it as the third political force currently in Spain despite not having great successes. Both the PSOE and the Popular Party seem to be currently stable in their preferences, so although this might feel like a symptom of stability, the truth is that it is complicated to glimpse a panorama in which Spanish politics are not blocked against multiple weights that do not add up to majorities at both ends of the political spectrum. Although these parties have the majority of the votes of their respective fronts secured, this does not prevent them from not having enough support to generate majority governments alone.

Adding to this, the weakening of its natural partners further complicates a stable outlook for coalition governments. On the left, Sumar seems to be falling apart with the division generated by Podemos, which does not believe it can remain united with this political force and is trying to once again become an alternative for voters. This seems to be an unattainable dream due to its high attrition and the various crises it has faced internally. On the far-right, Vox is desperate to remain relevant in the national political discourse. Even so, its votes are not increasing, which could translate into a decline in its discourse and leadership. Despite its poor performance in the current preferences, this party remains a threat to Spanish democracy.

The political center in Spain is currently empty. Following the fall of Ciudadanos, this space has not been filled by any emerging political force, which demonstrates the high level of polarization the country faces today. This is clearly very worrying because the lack of a centrist political force makes it more difficult to reach agreements between both extremes of the political spectrum. This situation is not unique to Spain, as this same phenomenon can be seen in various countries of the European Union as well as the rest of the world, where high polarization dissolves such important spaces as the political center.

Political parties with regional and autonomous identities appear to be in the midst of a fascinating political transition. Their role has become more important than in previous electoral cycles due to their necessary support for generating majorities in the Spanish parliament, as is currently the case with Pedro Sánchez's government. However, it is clear that with greater support for national parties, the support for parties with a regional identity may diminish. This is why their attitudes may become more rigid in an attempt to survive and remain relevant in national politics.

Spanish politics undoubtedly differs greatly from current political phenomena, as an increase in the two-party system goes against the grain of the party divisions of other European democracies. It seems as if multipartyism has been a failed experiment in this country. Even so, nothing is certain given the current political landscape the country is experiencing, along with its significant polarization. Only through the results of the next general elections will we be able to gain a more precise understanding of Spanish voter behavior, but for that we will have to wait until 2027 or sooner, in the most chaotic scenario.