Labour’s first months: An unsteady start and a worrying winter

An exploration into why Starmer and Labour have lost support in their first few months

On the 4th of July 2024, Britain was handed over to Labour after 14 years of Conservative government; in a landslide victory, Kier Starmer was now prime minister. I remember my excitement to vote for the first time and the later relief when the news channels flashed the red rose over their screens was historic, it was finally the end of the Conservatives’ reign. There was excitement for the two million more annual NHS appointments, the abolition of private school loopholes, a genuine minimum wage and the protection of female victims of male violence. I was hopeful, like many others in the UK who had put their faith in the Labour party, that our country was going to find its way onto the right track.

Although inevitably not everybody was satisfied with the results, the Labour government were taking over a fractured country who had endured Brexit, Covid and a breakdown on Conservative government in recent years, and that was not going to be changed instantly. Despite achieving a majority, it was a pitiful majority; Starmer only receiving 33% of the electoral vote when in previous years that had been a much larger figure – Boris Johnson achieving 43%, and Jeremy Corbyn, despite losing, getting 32%. So already it was going to be a challenge for Starmer, but 33% of us had faith, right?

The first sign that Labour may not be pleasing everybody occurred when Starmer iterated that the first budget will be painful, and the UK will have to “accept short term pain for long term good”. This forewarning that his budget will spark controversy, whilst claiming there is no other choice due to the position they are in, with £20 billion debt being inherited from the Conservative government.

An early controversial move from Labour was the introduction of means testing for the winter fuel allowance which will see the number of pensioners receiving a payment of up to £300 deplete from 10.8 million to just 1.5 million individuals in 2024/25. During their campaign, Labour promised to protect pensioners from the cost-of-living crisis so the introduction of this means testing sparked some concerns. Many people iterated that those who sit just above the threshold will now not receive the support and may struggle to pay their bills, furthermore some critics stated some pensioners who are eligible for other benefits may not claim them, so will not receive the support that they deserve. Research conducted by Marie Curie found that more than 44,000 terminally ill people will now not receive the winter fuel payment and up to 1 in 5 of all people are dying because of fuel poverty; although, the government have promised an initial payment of £3.4 billion over 3 years which will make 350,000 homes more energy efficient and another £1.8 billion for battling fuel poverty – which stresses that they are starting their attempt to deal with the fuel poverty crisis, despite claims from critics. But what also adds fuel to the fire is that the promise made by Labour of a £13.2 billion investment into the warm homes plan, which does make their current investment look quite dismal despite reinforcements it is just the beginning but more needs to be done to help the 12 million British people facing poverty, they cannot be let down by another government.

'Starmer the farmer harmer’

Another Labour decision that has been under scrutiny is the one to impose an inheritance tax on farmers with assets worth more than £1million. Protests rippled across the UK in November 2024 with farmers showing their discontent in the decision by blocking ports in Dover and Holyhead, storming through London and threatening to block motorways, which would bring the country to a standstill, proclaiming “No Farmers No Food No Future”. The protests have been led by well-known farmer Jeremy Clarkson, the use of celebrity endorsement has led to the rapid growth of the protests. The protests have also been weaponised by the far right, commended by Reform leader Nigel Farage. Now many people have questioned whether Rachel Reeves’ legacy will be the destruction of British farming, like Thatcher’s in relation to the miners. However, people are failing to consider that the death of British farming was catalysed by Brexit, with the government stopping their £3 million annual subsidies for farmers, meaning many small farmers were suffering. Although, whichever way you look, many farmers are struggling and need to be supported by the government, rather than keeping their current blase attitudes that very few farmers will be affected, as a further 29% are being negatively affected by inheritance tax. With only 27% of people in favour of the family farm tax, it has further drained support for the Labour party who are beginning to walk a tight rope in all sectors of government.

Furthermore, the Labour government published an increase to university fees, imposing an annual £285 increase. Whilst it is not a massive increase, it is the first in eight years, and many critics of Labour have insinuated it will continue to make higher education less accessible to lower classes. It was an interesting idea to increase fees for students because they make up the highest proportion of Labour supporters (categorised by age group), with 32% of 18-34 years old being pleased with Starmer so far and 31% being neither pleased nor disappointed. Labour has insisted that they will be demanding more of universities to provide a better quality of education through teaching, work experience and abroad opportunities and pay a sufficient wage for academic staff, which overall would provide students with more opportunities after graduation, making university more desirable again.

The piling pressure

Amid numerous controversial changes in the first 5 months of their government, a public petition emerged which as of 29th November, has collected over 2.9 million signatures, with over a million signatures coming from constituencies with a Labour MP. In Sittingbourne and Sheppey, over 4,609 constituents signed the petition despite having Kevin Mckenna of the Labour party as their MP. When questioned about the petition, Starmer claimed he is not surprised by the petition but reiterated that the system does not work that way, remembering that petitions were signed for the reversal of Brexit that ultimately had no effect. However, the petition will have to be acknowledged by parliament in January due to surpassing the 100,000 signature marker, which will put some pressure on the Labour government and remind them of the public's wants and needs.

According to Alastair Campbell, former journalist and Downing street director of communications, the Labour government has failed throughout the first few months to establish what their policies are by avoiding engagement in debate, meaning their policies become a battle of narrative and opinion so people fail to understand what policies mean. As people misinterpret policies, support for Starmer dwindles. It is almost like Labour are scared to adapt their policies once they have been published, some such as the farmers tax should be reevaluated based purely off public reaction - Starmer should be finding a way to satisfy the farmers while not damaging the budget. In future, Starmer should provide clarity for Britain, which he has failed to do so far.

Labour’s future:

Whilst the initial few months have been very reactionary, there is still some support for the Labour government, and it is likely there always will be; people defended their decision to cut winter fuel payments, stating that those who really need it will still get it. They also argued that farmers should be paying inheritance taxes because every other sector has to so why should they be exempt. But if Labour carries on as they are their support will continue to deplete, as of October 2024 six out of ten Britons dislike the prime minister.

Starmer had a job to rebuild relations with Europe and improve foreign relations in general, he has spent much of his time abroad and held a meeting with Chinese President Xi at the G20 summit, which Johnson had failed to do after a souring relationship. This was a strong move especially with Trump’s campaign being quite anti-China and Starmer has really emphasised that he does not have to pick between Europe and the US. People are waiting for Starmer to begin repairing relations with Europe after Brexit but overall, he has made a strong support in his foreign policy which should warrant support from the public.

Overall, the dire situation inherited from the Conservatives was never going to be an easy job to tackle for Keir Starmer and ultimately, not everyone can be satisfied. The demand for change from the public has proven too much and many have lost sight of how long change truly takes. This has led to ruthless judgement towards Starmer and the Labour party, reflected in the lack of support and 4 in 10 Britons believing the country is in a worse state than under the Conservatives. Though there is a fine line between slating the government and holding them accountable for their poor decisions, with most Britons believing the winter fuel payments are the worst thing Labour have done so far. How Starmer handles the next few weeks in ending farmer protests, acknowledging the petition in parliament and the continuing cost of living crisis will be very telling for the level of support he and the Labour party receive in 2025.