Battlegrounds of the 21st Century, Where the Next Crisis Could Erupt: Myanmar

The contemporary civil war in Myanmar represents one of the most complex and intractable conflicts in Southeast Asia. What began as a nationwide protest movement against military usurpation has escalated into widespread armed resistance, involving both newly formed militias and long-established ethnic insurgent groups. The ramifications of this ongoing crisis have been profound, contributing to extensive internal displacement, economic disintegration, and regional instability.

The immediate catalyst for the current civil war was the military coup executed on February 1, 2021, which abruptly terminated Myanmar’s nascent experiment with quasi-democratic governance. The coup displaced the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government, led by State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, under the pretext of unsubstantiated allegations of electoral fraud in the 2020 general elections.

The backlash was immediate. Millions took to the streets in protest. Doctors, teachers, students, and civil servants walked off their jobs in a mass civil disobedience movement. The generals responded with bullets. Hundreds of unarmed protesters were killed. Thousands were arrested. Peaceful protest soon gave way to armed resistance.

Since then, the country has entered a new and unprecedented phase of civil war, which differs from previous conflicts in both scope and composition. Whereas earlier episodes of violence were typically localized within ethnic peripheries, the current conflict has engulfed vast swathes of central Myanmar, mobilizing the ethnic Bamar majority for the first time in sustained armed resistance against the military. This convergence of urban pro-democracy forces and traditional ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) presents new challenges and opportunities in Myanmar’s long struggle for democracy and ethnic federalism.

In response to the coup, ousted lawmakers and activists formed the National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow government operating in exile and in secret inside Myanmar. Composed of deposed NLD officials, ethnic leaders, and civil society figures, the NUG has declared itself the legitimate representative of the Myanmar people. The NUG and civil society leaders have urged stronger international action: more sanctions on energy exports (particularly gas revenues), formal recognition of the NUG, and the creation of a humanitarian corridor. But geopolitical calculations — and fears of deeper instability — have left Myanmar largely on its own.

The humanitarian fallout of the conflict has reached catastrophic proportions. According to United Nations estimates from late 2024, over 3.4 million individuals have been internally displaced. A further 149,000 have fled to neighboring countries, primarily Thailand, India, and China. The demographic composition of these displaced populations is disproportionately female and juvenile, exposing them to heightened vulnerabilities including gender-based violence, trafficking, and chronic undernutrition.

As the world’s attention shifts elsewhere, Myanmar’s people fight on. Not just for survival, but for a different kind of future.